A Different Nomogram!

H F · New User Joined: 25 Apr 2008 Posts: 8

This nomogram is somewhat different from others I have seen. It
results in a more optimistic projection for many of us, however, so I
am not really sure how useful it is. The nomogram creators admit: "The
calibration plots suggest that the predictions of the nomogram may be
too optimistic for patients with calculated 10-year PFP less than
90%."

But - as the creators point out: "Unique to predictive models, the
nomogram predictions can be adjusted for the disease-free interval
that a patient has achieved after RP."

They make two assertions which took a lot of mental processing for me
to understand because, initially, they seem to conflict (and I still
don't think I really understand):
1. "Given that a patient’s prognosis improves with the disease-free
interval maintained after RP, we have also enabled the 10-year PFP to
be adjusted to reflect this changing prognosis." I did not know this!
I assumed that because nomograms generally show that the more time
which goes by, the risk of progression increases - that is the way to
think about it. And they say that also:
2. "For model validation, we assessed both discrimination and
calibration. Discrimination refers to the ability of the nomogram to
rank patients by their risk, such that patients with a higher
predicted risk of treatment failure should be more likely to recur."

If anyone can help me understand these two items as both being
applicable, I would appreciate it!

[link deleted by admin]

brainman · Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 4:19 am Post subject: Re: A Different Nomogram!

H F, sorry that no one has replied to you yet. I am just replying to let you know that you are my my thoughts and prayers.

By the way, what is a "nomogram?" If have never heard of one before... or at least not by that name.
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H F · New User Joined: 25 Apr 2008 Posts: 8

Jim - thanks for your reply. Here is an example:

http://www.mskcc.org/mskcc/html/5794.cfm

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